Sport Lisboa e Benfica leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $716 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$716.06
-$3.94
62.9¢ → 56.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cypya | Noavg 64¢ | $413.22 | $342.2 | -$71.02 | — 1-3 (4) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $271.71 | $334.97 | +$63.26 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 53.8¢ | $26.73 | $28.08 | +$1.35 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $6.8 | $7.27 | +$0.47 | 35% 279-508 (787) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $1.54 | $3.54 | +$2 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
CypyaInvested
$413.22
Value
$342.2
PnL
-$71.02
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$271.71
Value
$334.97
PnL
+$63.26
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$26.73
Value
$28.08
PnL
+$1.35
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$7.27
PnL
+$0.47
Record
35%
279-508 (787)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$1.54
Value
$3.54
PnL
+$2
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.