Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Draw at halftime?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 39¢ · $584 held · ended Nov 11

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$584.01

Combined PnL

-$225.19

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 38.5¢

-40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$367.16

Total Shares954

Combined PnL-$245.77

No4 traders

Total Value$216.85

Total Shares350

Combined PnL+$20.58

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WH whosayCTR	Yesavg 72.7¢	$424.34	$224.79	-$199.55	68% 26-12 (38)
BL BlackMamba08CTR	Yesavg 51¢	$188.59	$142.37	-$46.22	— 5-3 (8)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60.3¢	$138.6	$141.39	+$2.79	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$32.49	$33.43	+$0.94	55% 1627-1324 (2951)
LuccaF7<$100	Noavg 29¢	$14.96	$31.73	+$16.77	— 2-3 (5)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 61¢	$10.22	$10.3	+$0.08	41% 483-698 (1181)

whosayCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.34

Value

$224.79

PnL

-$199.55

Record

68%

26-12 (38)

BlackMamba08CTR

Yes

Invested

$188.59

Value

$142.37

PnL

-$46.22

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Flaznorp

Invested

$138.6

Value

$141.39

PnL

+$2.79

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$32.49

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$0.94

Record

55%

1627-1324 (2951)

LuccaF7<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$31.73

PnL

+$16.77

Record

—

2-3 (5)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

483-698 (1181)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.