Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FK Austria Wien leading at halftime?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 25¢ · $32 held · ends Nov 11

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$32.26

Combined PnL

$2.69

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$26.51

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$1.86

No1 trader

Total Value$5.75

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.83

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$3.16	$17.79	+$14.63	15% 13-72 (85)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.92	$5.75	+$0.83	47% 148-167 (315)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$18.27	$5.04	-$13.22	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.14	$3.43	+$1.3	31% 169-382 (551)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.08	$0.24	-$0.84	37% 189-328 (517)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$17.79

PnL

+$14.63

Record

15%

13-72 (85)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.83

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.27

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$13.22

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$1.3

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.84

Record

37%

189-328 (517)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.