Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-11-11?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 85¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 11

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$835.22

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 84.7¢

-9% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares11,230

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$207.6

Total Shares1,200

Combined PnL+$186.83

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.6¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$178.13	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 96.9¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$265.58	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.6¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$257.27	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82.1¢	$899.65	$919.3	+$19.64	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 94¢	$848.27	$756.65	-$91.62	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 93.3¢	$682.15	$642.1	-$40.04	39% 309-489 (798)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94.2¢	$486.24	$432.01	-$54.23	44% 286-362 (648)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 93.8¢	$477.03	$428.24	-$48.79	39% 303-465 (768)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 94.6¢	$424.92	$379.51	-$45.41	39% 624-957 (1581)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 94.4¢	$422.39	$374.13	-$48.26	41% 299-433 (732)
WH whosay	Noavg 88¢	$331.31	$316.34	-$14.98	67% 16-8 (24)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$20.77	$207.6	+$186.83	12% 17-121 (138)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83¢	$62.67	$63.43	+$0.76	34% 233-457 (690)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$23.16	$22	-$1.16	— 2-14 (16)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$86.76	$2.38	+$3.03	51% 300-292 (592)

cigarettes

Invested

$2,093.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$178.13

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,001.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$265.58

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,971.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$257.27

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

Flaznorp

Invested

$899.65

Value

$919.3

PnL

+$19.64

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$848.27

Value

$756.65

PnL

-$91.62

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$682.15

Value

$642.1

PnL

-$40.04

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$486.24

Value

$432.01

PnL

-$54.23

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$477.03

Value

$428.24

PnL

-$48.79

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$424.92

Value

$379.51

PnL

-$45.41

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$422.39

Value

$374.13

PnL

-$48.26

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

whosay

Invested

$331.31

Value

$316.34

PnL

-$14.98

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$20.77

Value

$207.6

PnL

+$186.83

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$62.67

Value

$63.43

PnL

+$0.76

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$23.16

Value

$22

PnL

-$1.16

Record

—

2-14 (16)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$86.76

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$3.03

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.3%

84.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.