Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FK Austria Wien?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$5.2K
$-5.2K
92.4¢ → 50.2¢
-46% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.5¢ | $5.9K | $1.6K | $-4.2K | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$9.9 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
RO roscoffCTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $1.4K | $821 | -$579 | 51% 39-38 (77) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $1.1K | $717.91 | -$378.1 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $275.7 | $212.4 | -$63.3 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
 itoney17CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $88.46 | $83.99 | -$4.47 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $42.57 | $43.79 | +$1.22 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $9.43 | $8.6 | -$0.83 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $5 | $6.19 | +$1.19 | 68% 1590-741 (2331) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 31.6¢ | $2.85 | $4.68 | +$1.82 | — |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 27.9¢ | $6.14 | $4.02 | -$2.12 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$5,852.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$1,604.3
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$9.9
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$1,400
Value
$821
PnL
-$579
Record
51%
39-38 (77)
Invested
$1,096.01
Value
$717.91
PnL
-$378.1
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
VeryLucky888Invested
$275.7
Value
$212.4
PnL
-$63.3
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
itoney17CTR<$100Invested
$88.46
Value
$83.99
PnL
-$4.47
Record
—
Invested
$42.57
Value
$43.79
PnL
+$1.22
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$9.43
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$1.19
Record
68%
1590-741 (2331)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$1.82
Record
—
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$6.14
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$2.12
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.