Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 5 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw?

5 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (26%) · Yes at 48¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 26%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 48¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares15,168

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No14 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,315

Combined PnL-$261.55

Yes — 26%No — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoffCTR	Yesavg 75.5¢	$7.4K	$4.7K	$-2.7K	51% 39-38 (77)
itoney17CTR	Yesavg 35¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$618.93	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 58.4¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$238.15	35% 177-324 (501)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.9¢	$754.52	$406.98	-$347.54	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
WH whosayCTR	Yesavg 68.5¢	$357.47	$305.45	-$52.02	— 12-6 (18)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 28¢	$146.36	$219.13	+$72.76	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 23.9¢	$103.71	$180.37	+$76.66	32% 205-443 (648)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 20.1¢	$60.31	$124.5	+$64.19	17% 12-60 (72)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 26.1¢	$99.62	$114.5	+$14.87	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$51.09	$83.53	+$32.45	31% 190-424 (614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$48.48	$72.98	+$24.5	38% 173-282 (455)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$50.05	$71.89	+$21.83	34% 199-384 (583)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$43.06	$67.52	+$24.46	36% 521-909 (1430)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$45.08	$65.6	+$20.52	37% 190-317 (507)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$26.75	$42.35	+$15.6	68% 1590-741 (2331)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 69.2¢	$60.79	$42.16	-$18.63	43% 2552-3349 (5901)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$19.25	$23.6	+$4.35	—
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.08	$19.51	-$30.57	30% 161-379 (540)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$30.2	$16.07	-$13.13	48% 223-237 (460)

roscoffCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,350.05

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

39-38 (77)

itoney17CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,674.46

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$618.93

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$2,168.33

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$238.15

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

Flaznorp

Invested

$754.52

Value

$406.98

PnL

-$347.54

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

whosayCTR

Yes

Invested

$357.47

Value

$305.45

PnL

-$52.02

Record

—

12-6 (18)

cigarettes

Invested

$146.36

Value

$219.13

PnL

+$72.76

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$103.71

Value

$180.37

PnL

+$76.66

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$60.31

Value

$124.5

PnL

+$64.19

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$99.62

Value

$114.5

PnL

+$14.87

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$51.09

Value

$83.53

PnL

+$32.45

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$48.48

Value

$72.98

PnL

+$24.5

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$50.05

Value

$71.89

PnL

+$21.83

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$43.06

Value

$67.52

PnL

+$24.46

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$45.08

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$20.52

Record

37%

190-317 (507)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$26.75

Value

$42.35

PnL

+$15.6

Record

68%

1590-741 (2331)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.79

Value

$42.16

PnL

-$18.63

Record

43%

2552-3349 (5901)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.25

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$4.35

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Invested

$50.08

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$30.57

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$30.2

Value

$16.07

PnL

-$13.13

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.