Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 55¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$222.25
$2
51.4¢ → 54.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $108.3 | $120.75 | +$12.45 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
RO roscoffCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $51.4 | $44.63 | -$6.77 | 51% 39-38 (77) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $45.6 | $40.38 | -$5.23 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
 Cypya<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $12.55 | $14.37 | +$1.82 | — 1-3 (4) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.13 | -$0.27 | 35% 266-490 (756) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$108.3
Value
$120.75
PnL
+$12.45
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$51.4
Value
$44.63
PnL
-$6.77
Record
51%
39-38 (77)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$40.38
PnL
-$5.23
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Cypya<$100Invested
$12.55
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$1.82
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.27
Record
35%
266-490 (756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.