Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 25¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$158.13
$0.53
Research grade
AvoidOver at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $93.77 | $95.02 | +$1.25 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $30.83 | $30.83 | +$0 | 24% 205-638 (843) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $16.76 | $16.49 | -$0.27 | 50% 1384-1403 (2787) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $9.99 | $9.59 | -$0.4 | 24% 202-633 (835) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $6.25 | $6.2 | -$0.05 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$93.77
Value
$95.02
PnL
+$1.25
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$30.83
Value
$30.83
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
205-638 (843)
Invested
$16.76
Value
$16.49
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
1384-1403 (2787)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$0.4
Record
24%
202-633 (835)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.