Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 82¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$344.39

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 82¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,734

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$454.11

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.8¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$763.41	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
RN1	Underavg 51¢	$583.1	$990.75	+$407.65	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Underavg 55¢	$549.98	$869.98	+$319.99	2% 4-256 (260)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 79.2¢	$955.96	$649.41	-$260.55	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$248.12	$387.05	+$152.17	49% 235-240 (475)
0X 0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR	Overavg 49¢	$977.56	$289.28	-$688.28	—
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 45¢	$255.73	$82.4	-$173.33	25% 218-645 (863)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$242.81	$76.41	-$166.4	25% 218-637 (855)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.5	$2.3	-$6.2	25% 217-656 (873)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$2	$2	+$0	44% 79-102 (181)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$5.79	$1.71	-$4.08	31% 170-384 (554)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,591.27

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$763.41

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

RN1

Under

Invested

$583.1

Value

$990.75

PnL

+$407.65

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Under

Invested

$549.98

Value

$869.98

PnL

+$319.99

Record

4-256 (260)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$955.96

Value

$649.41

PnL

-$260.55

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$248.12

Value

$387.05

PnL

+$152.17

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

0xc15b7d997a404e55ba96d1cdd53fb160db153b86CTR

Over

Invested

$977.56

Value

$289.28

PnL

-$688.28

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$255.73

Value

$82.4

PnL

-$173.33

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$242.81

Value

$76.41

PnL

-$166.4

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.5

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$6.2

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.79

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$4.08

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.