Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 70¢ · $847 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$846.97
$18.82
66.8¢ → 69.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 67.2¢ | $548.63 | $562.44 | +$13.81 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 66¢ | $238.37 | $243.78 | +$5.42 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $22.97 | $23.32 | +$0.35 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 32.4¢ | $54.61 | $16.94 | -$0.75 | 49% 231-238 (469) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $0.49 | $0.48 | -$0.01 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
Invested
$548.63
Value
$562.44
PnL
+$13.81
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$238.37
Value
$243.78
PnL
+$5.42
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$22.97
Value
$23.32
PnL
+$0.35
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$54.61
Value
$16.94
PnL
-$0.75
Record
49%
231-238 (469)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.