Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$2.0K
$637.44
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 81¢ | $778.73 | $841.23 | +$62.49 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 16¢ | $233.3 | $524.45 | +$291.16 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 17.8¢ | $201.41 | $441.4 | +$239.99 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 14¢ | $103.84 | $92.71 | -$11.13 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 13.7¢ | $37.64 | $91.92 | +$54.28 | 25% 215-633 (848) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.95 | +$0.65 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
RN1Invested
$778.73
Value
$841.23
PnL
+$62.49
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$233.3
Value
$524.45
PnL
+$291.16
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$201.41
Value
$441.4
PnL
+$239.99
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$103.84
Value
$92.71
PnL
-$11.13
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$37.64
Value
$91.92
PnL
+$54.28
Record
25%
215-633 (848)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.65
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.