Spread: Real Madrid CF Femenino (-3.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paris FC (17%) · Paris FC at 88¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 10

Real Madrid CF Femenino13¢Paris FC87¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Paris FC

Consensus Traders

Paris FC 17%

Total Value

$540.46

Combined PnL

$3.6

Research grade

NeutralParis FC at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Paris FC

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid CF Femenino13%

Paris FC88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Paris FC1 trader

Total Value$428.06

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$2.82

Real Madrid CF Femenino5 traders

Total Value$112.41

Total Shares974

Combined PnL+$0.78

Paris FC — 17%Real Madrid CF Femenino — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Paris FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrReal Madrid CF Femenino 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Real Madrid CF Femenino 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Paris FCavg 88¢	$425.24	$428.06	+$2.82	56% 1515-1167 (2682)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 11¢	$41.36	$45.12	+$3.76	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 12¢	$40.32	$36.96	-$3.36	24% 197-623 (820)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 12¢	$13.44	$12.32	-$1.12	24% 196-614 (810)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 11¢	$10.1	$11.02	+$0.92	44% 78-98 (176)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 11¢	$6.4	$6.99	+$0.58	47% 145-163 (308)

GoalLineGhost

Paris FC

Invested

$425.24

Value

$428.06

PnL

+$2.82

Record

56%

1515-1167 (2682)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Real Madrid CF Femenino

Invested

$41.36

Value

$45.12

PnL

+$3.76

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Real Madrid CF Femenino

Invested

$40.32

Value

$36.96

PnL

-$3.36

Record

24%

197-623 (820)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Real Madrid CF Femenino

Invested

$13.44

Value

$12.32

PnL

-$1.12

Record

24%

196-614 (810)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Real Madrid CF Femenino

Invested

$10.1

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.92

Record

44%

78-98 (176)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Real Madrid CF Femenino

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.58

Record

47%

145-163 (308)

Research grade

NeutralParis FC at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Paris FC

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Paris FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrReal Madrid CF Femenino 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Real Madrid CF Femenino 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Paris FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.