Spread: Real Madrid CF Femenino (-2.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Paris FC (25%) · Paris FC at 79¢ · $788 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Paris FC
4
Paris FC 25%
1 arb excluded
$787.9
-$2.7
Research grade
NeutralParis FC at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Paris FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Paris FCavg 76.3¢ | $549.97 | $555.3 | +$5.33 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 24.9¢ | $113.94 | $110.02 | -$3.92 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
| └ Real Madrid CF Femenino leg | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 24.9¢ | $67.85 | $62.56 | -$5.29 | |
| └ Paris FC leg | Paris FCavg 74.8¢ | $46.09 | $47.46 | +$1.37 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 23¢ | $104 | $97.22 | -$6.78 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 24.9¢ | $23.88 | $22.95 | -$0.93 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 26¢ | $2.72 | $2.41 | -$0.31 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
Invested
$549.97
Value
$555.3
PnL
+$5.33
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$113.94
Value
$110.02
PnL
-$3.92
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Both legs:
Invested
$104
Value
$97.22
PnL
-$6.78
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$23.88
Value
$22.95
PnL
-$0.93
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.41
PnL
-$0.31
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.