Spread: Real Madrid CF Femenino (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paris FC (50%) · Paris FC at 56¢ · $624 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Paris FC
6
Paris FC 50%
$624.23
$3.63
57.5¢ → 56¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralParis FC at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Paris FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Paris FCavg 59¢ | $267.73 | $253.98 | -$13.75 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LI LimousinCTR | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 40¢ | $154.28 | $169.71 | +$15.43 | 24% 201-647 (848) |
FL Flaznorp | Paris FCavg 53.8¢ | $101.44 | $104.85 | +$3.41 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 45.3¢ | $71.72 | $69.7 | -$2.02 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Paris FCavg 54¢ | $23.33 | $23.79 | +$0.46 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Real Madrid CF Femeninoavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.2 | +$0.1 | 25% 204-624 (828) |
Invested
$267.73
Value
$253.98
PnL
-$13.75
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$154.28
Value
$169.71
PnL
+$15.43
Record
24%
201-647 (848)
Invested
$101.44
Value
$104.85
PnL
+$3.41
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$71.72
Value
$69.7
PnL
-$2.02
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$23.33
Value
$23.79
PnL
+$0.46
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
25%
204-624 (828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.