Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-11-10?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 73¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 10

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$393.06

Combined PnL

-$4.25

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$346.06

Total Shares456

Combined PnL-$7.75

No4 traders

Total Value$47

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$3.5

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 69.8¢	$353.81	$346.06	-$7.75	50% 1375-1392 (2767)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$18.38	$19.27	+$0.89	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$15.53	$16.24	+$0.71	29% 152-375 (527)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 28.1¢	$11.29	$8.14	+$1.23	48% 206-226 (432)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.67	$3.34	+$0.67	57% 1516-1167 (2683)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$353.81

Value

$346.06

PnL

-$7.75

Record

50%

1375-1392 (2767)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$0.89

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$15.53

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$0.71

Record

29%

152-375 (527)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$1.23

Record

48%

206-226 (432)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$2.67

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0.67

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.