Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-10?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $882 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$881.66
-$1.99
85.9¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $439.76 | $444.02 | +$4.27 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.9¢ | $297.77 | $296.37 | -$1.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $141.99 | $147.65 | +$5.67 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 86¢ | $334.2 | $339.1 | -$1.98 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $65.64 | $65.33 | -$0.31 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $29.35 | $29.52 | +$0.17 | 23% 176-586 (762) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $3.56 | $3.69 | +$0.13 | 24% 184-596 (780) |
Invested
$439.76
Value
$444.02
PnL
+$4.27
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Both legs:
Invested
$334.2
Value
$339.1
PnL
-$1.98
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$65.64
Value
$65.33
PnL
-$0.31
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$29.52
PnL
+$0.17
Record
23%
176-586 (762)
Invested
$3.56
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$0.13
Record
24%
184-596 (780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.