Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Paris FC leading at halftime?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $172 held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$172.13

Combined PnL

-$288.37

Smart Money Entry

12¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$172.13

Total Shares2,617

Combined PnL-$288.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$142.79	$80.43	-$62.36	47% 148-167 (315)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$124.49	$58.05	-$66.44	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$61.26	$31.55	-$29.72	57% 1516-1167 (2683)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2.71	$1.53	-$1.19	31% 170-384 (554)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$55.41	$0.28	-$55.13	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$54.91	$0.21	-$54.69	61% 630-411 (1041)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.8	$0.07	-$14.73	44% 79-102 (181)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$4.47	$0.02	-$4.45	25% 218-637 (855)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.5	$0	+$0.34	49% 235-240 (475)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.79

Value

$80.43

PnL

-$62.36

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.49

Value

$58.05

PnL

-$66.44

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.26

Value

$31.55

PnL

-$29.72

Record

57%

1516-1167 (2683)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$1.19

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.41

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$55.13

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.91

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$54.69

Record

61%

630-411 (1041)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.8

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$14.73

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.47

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.45

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.