Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$5.5K
$1.8K
64.7¢ → 100¢
+55% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 73.2¢ | $2.3K | $2.9K | +$660.14 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 58.1¢ | $653.67 | $1.1K | +$414.44 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 52¢ | $507.99 | $967.14 | +$459.15 | 61% 630-411 (1041) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 52¢ | $219.99 | $418.82 | +$198.83 | 60% 422-286 (708) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 52.7¢ | $79.31 | $51.7 | +$22.39 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 53.6¢ | $21.01 | $38.78 | +$17.77 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
Invested
$2,272.14
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$660.14
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$653.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$414.44
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$507.99
Value
$967.14
PnL
+$459.15
Record
61%
630-411 (1041)
Invested
$219.99
Value
$418.82
PnL
+$198.83
Record
60%
422-286 (708)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$79.31
Value
$51.7
PnL
+$22.39
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$21.01
Value
$38.78
PnL
+$17.77
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.