Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 2 - 2 Paris FC?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 50¢ · $429 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$428.64
$1.95
97.3¢ → 50¢
-49% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-22 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 98¢ | $313.16 | $312.84 | -$0.32 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $27.24 | $28.14 | +$0.9 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $24.83 | $25.48 | +$0.65 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $23.35 | $23.28 | -$0.07 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $21.22 | $21.78 | +$0.56 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $6.39 | $6.39 | -$0 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $5.66 | $5.81 | +$0.15 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $4.79 | $4.9 | +$0.11 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.02 | -$0.02 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
Invested
$313.16
Value
$312.84
PnL
-$0.32
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$27.24
Value
$28.14
PnL
+$0.9
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$24.83
Value
$25.48
PnL
+$0.65
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$23.35
Value
$23.28
PnL
-$0.07
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$21.78
PnL
+$0.56
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.39
Value
$6.39
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$5.66
Value
$5.81
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.11
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.