Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 2 - 0 Paris FC?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 74¢ · $586 held · ended Nov 10

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$585.73

Combined PnL

-$22.15

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 74¢

-17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$551.73

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$37.15

Yes1 trader

Total Value$34

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$15

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90¢	$259.13	$244.99	-$14.14	47% 148-167 (315)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 83¢	$83.41	$89.68	+$6.27	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90¢	$103.5	$86.25	-$17.25	25% 216-657 (873)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 91¢	$47.41	$43.24	-$4.17	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 91¢	$43.59	$39.76	-$3.83	25% 218-645 (863)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 90¢	$42.84	$39.51	-$3.33	44% 79-102 (181)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	$19	$34	+$15	49% 235-240 (475)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9	$8.3	-$0.7	25% 218-637 (855)

SnakeBall

Invested

$259.13

Value

$244.99

PnL

-$14.14

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$83.41

Value

$89.68

PnL

+$6.27

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

Venusian

Invested

$103.5

Value

$86.25

PnL

-$17.25

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$47.41

Value

$43.24

PnL

-$4.17

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$43.59

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$3.83

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$42.84

Value

$39.51

PnL

-$3.33

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$34

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.