Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 1 - 2 Paris FC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $732 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$732.42
-$43.61
96.8¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.6¢ | $342.22 | $346.97 | +$4.75 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.7¢ | $171.75 | $173.31 | +$1.56 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95.1¢ | $353.98 | $167.65 | -$41.13 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $24.64 | $25.05 | +$0.41 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $8.3 | $8.3 | +$0 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $13.24 | $6.53 | -$6.71 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $7.11 | $4.61 | -$2.5 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$342.22
Value
$346.97
PnL
+$4.75
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$171.75
Value
$173.31
PnL
+$1.56
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$353.98
Value
$167.65
PnL
-$41.13
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$0.41
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$13.24
Value
$6.53
PnL
-$6.71
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$7.11
Value
$4.61
PnL
-$2.5
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.