Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 1 - 0 Paris FC?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $478 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$478.3
$16.39
92.3¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $161.38 | $285.49 | +$124.11 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $51.14 | $186.67 | +$135.53 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.4¢ | $110.24 | $98.82 | -$11.42 | |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 92¢ | $106.44 | $91.4 | -$15.04 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $29.5 | $42 | +$26.15 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $20.03 | $21.94 | +$1.91 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $20.2 | $19.7 | -$0.5 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.5 | $11.25 | -$0.25 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.4 | $4.21 | +$2.8 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.99 | $2.31 | +$1.32 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$161.38
Value
$285.49
PnL
+$124.11
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Both legs:
Invested
$106.44
Value
$91.4
PnL
-$15.04
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$29.5
Value
$42
PnL
+$26.15
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$20.03
Value
$21.94
PnL
+$1.91
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$19.7
PnL
-$0.5
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$11.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$4.21
PnL
+$2.8
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$2.31
PnL
+$1.32
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.