Exact Score: Real Madrid CF Femenino 0 - 0 Paris FC?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$188.33

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,312

Combined PnL-$244.82

Yes4 traders

Total Value$218.85

Total Shares3,290

Combined PnL+$56.49

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 94.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$121.66	44% 79-102 (181)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.3¢	$687.73	$619.58	-$68.15	47% 148-167 (315)
RN1	Noavg 94.1¢	$645.02	$600.8	-$44.21	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$92.35	$211.31	+$118.96	25% 216-657 (873)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.3¢	$142.57	$132.83	-$9.74	50% 1411-1415 (2826)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 97¢	$15.41	$14.35	-$1.06	31% 170-384 (554)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$4.16	$6.78	+$2.62	25% 218-645 (863)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$53.56	$0.53	-$53.03	25% 217-656 (873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.29	$0.23	-$12.06	25% 218-637 (855)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,657.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$121.66

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

SnakeBall

Invested

$687.73

Value

$619.58

PnL

-$68.15

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

RN1

Invested

$645.02

Value

$600.8

PnL

-$44.21

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$92.35

Value

$211.31

PnL

+$118.96

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

Flaznorp

Invested

$142.57

Value

$132.83

PnL

-$9.74

Record

50%

1411-1415 (2826)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$14.35

PnL

-$1.06

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$2.62

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.56

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$53.03

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.29

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$12.06

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.