Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Real Madrid CF Femenino vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 42¢ · $560 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$559.84
$7.99
40.7¢ → 42¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $258.26 | $262.01 | +$3.74 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $196.41 | $201.11 | +$4.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $61.85 | $60.9 | -$0.95 | |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $136.84 | $143.69 | +$6.84 | 60% 628-411 (1039) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41.5¢ | $124.55 | $126 | +$1.45 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $15.67 | $15.52 | -$0.15 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $9.4 | $9.17 | -$0.23 | 24% 201-647 (848) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $3.38 | $3.46 | +$0.08 | 43% 78-102 (180) |
Invested
$258.26
Value
$262.01
PnL
+$3.74
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.84
Value
$143.69
PnL
+$6.84
Record
60%
628-411 (1039)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$124.55
Value
$126
PnL
+$1.45
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$15.67
Value
$15.52
PnL
-$0.15
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.17
PnL
-$0.23
Record
24%
201-647 (848)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.08
Record
43%
78-102 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.