Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 56¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$273.37
-$1.52
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 58.1¢ | $202.46 | $198.98 | -$3.48 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58.1¢ | $148.68 | $143.36 | -$5.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.6¢ | $53.77 | $55.61 | +$1.84 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $34.25 | $33.09 | -$1.17 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $18.76 | $19.88 | +$1.12 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $11.65 | $11.75 | +$0.11 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 57.6¢ | $97.25 | $9.13 | -$1.59 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $0.54 | $0.55 | +$0.01 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
Invested
$202.46
Value
$198.98
PnL
-$3.48
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.25
Value
$33.09
PnL
-$1.17
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$18.76
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$1.12
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$11.75
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$97.25
Value
$9.13
PnL
-$1.59
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.