Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 63¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$487.15
-$2.68
63.2¢ → 63¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 63.3¢ | $236.63 | $233.56 | -$3.07 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 37¢ | $116.07 | $116.07 | +$0 | 24% 204-649 (853) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $54.31 | $54.31 | +$0 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 36.7¢ | $41.32 | $41.7 | +$0.39 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $27.31 | $27.31 | +$0 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $14.19 | $14.19 | -$0 | 25% 209-625 (834) |
Invested
$236.63
Value
$233.56
PnL
-$3.07
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$116.07
Value
$116.07
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
204-649 (853)
Invested
$54.31
Value
$54.31
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$41.32
Value
$41.7
PnL
+$0.39
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$27.31
Value
$27.31
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$14.19
Value
$14.19
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
209-625 (834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.