Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 84¢ · $394 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$393.88
$1.67
83.1¢ → 84¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 83.1¢ | $208.91 | $210.27 | +$1.36 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 83.5¢ | $138.23 | $139.89 | +$1.66 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 83.5¢ | $83.35 | $83.84 | +$0.49 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 15.7¢ | $54.88 | $56.06 | +$1.18 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $19.05 | $19.05 | -$0 | 43% 78-102 (180) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $18.55 | $18.86 | +$0.31 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $3.68 | $3.68 | +$0 | 24% 204-649 (853) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $2.13 | $2.13 | +$0 | 24% 205-639 (844) |
Invested
$208.91
Value
$210.27
PnL
+$1.36
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$138.23
Value
$139.89
PnL
+$1.66
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.05
Value
$19.05
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
78-102 (180)
Invested
$18.55
Value
$18.86
PnL
+$0.31
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
204-649 (853)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$2.13
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
205-639 (844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.