Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 96¢ · $519 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$518.78
$3.01
96¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 96¢ | $482.11 | $483.99 | +$1.88 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Overavg 94.5¢ | $20.62 | $20.88 | +$0.26 | 43% 2552-3349 (5901) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.7¢ | $5.69 | $6.61 | +$0.92 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $5.86 | $5.84 | -$0.02 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 4.4¢ | $1.49 | $1.46 | -$0.03 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
Invested
$482.11
Value
$483.99
PnL
+$1.88
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$20.62
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$0.26
Record
43%
2552-3349 (5901)
Invested
$5.69
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$0.92
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
Invested
$5.86
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$0.03
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.