Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$19.76
74.9¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$19.08 | 50% 1383-1403 (2786) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $98.05 | $99.2 | +$1.15 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.3¢ | $50.52 | $51.66 | +$1.15 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24¢ | $47.53 | $47.53 | +$0 | |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $74.68 | $74.68 | +$0 | 24% 202-632 (834) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $45.49 | $21.14 | +$0.63 | 48% 214-230 (444) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.8 | +$0.05 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
Invested
$1,649.35
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$19.08
Record
50%
1383-1403 (2786)
Invested
$98.05
Value
$99.2
PnL
+$1.15
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.68
Value
$74.68
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
202-632 (834)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$45.49
Value
$21.14
PnL
+$0.63
Record
48%
214-230 (444)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.