Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $24 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$24.18
-$0.22
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $7.8 | -$0.1 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $7.8 | -$0.1 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.88 | -$0.02 | 24% 208-644 (852) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.51 | $2.51 | +$0 | 24% 204-649 (853) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | +$0 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
208-644 (852)
Invested
$2.51
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
204-649 (853)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.