Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 38¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$168.38
$0.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 37.6¢ | $92.62 | $91.56 | -$1.06 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.6¢ | $71.84 | $70.61 | -$1.23 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $20.78 | $20.95 | +$0.17 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $27.27 | $27.28 | +$0.01 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $24.2 | $25.18 | +$0.98 | 24% 208-644 (852) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.9¢ | $22.31 | $21.85 | -$0.45 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $27.05 | $2.51 | -$0.34 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
Invested
$92.62
Value
$91.56
PnL
-$1.06
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.27
Value
$27.28
PnL
+$0.01
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$25.18
PnL
+$0.98
Record
24%
208-644 (852)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$21.85
PnL
-$0.45
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$27.05
Value
$2.51
PnL
-$0.34
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.