Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-10?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$122.69
$0.82
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $97.31 | $100.97 | +$0.96 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.62 | $7.54 | -$0.08 | 24% 184-596 (780) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $7.44 | $7.36 | -$0.08 | 23% 176-590 (766) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.3¢ | $6.8 | $6.82 | +$0.02 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.