Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 86¢ · $782 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$782.47
$73.7
66.4¢ → 86¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 15.7¢ | $244.68 | $228.64 | -$16.04 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 15.7¢ | $159.29 | $121.73 | -$37.56 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.3¢ | $85.39 | $106.91 | +$21.52 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 63.8¢ | $148.15 | $199.82 | +$51.67 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 68.5¢ | $117.86 | $147.98 | +$30.12 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 67¢ | $122.8 | $127.13 | +$29.85 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $44.85 | $55.9 | +$11.05 | 57% 4034-3050 (7084) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $72 | $23 | -$49 | 30% 378-880 (1258) |
Invested
$244.68
Value
$228.64
PnL
-$16.04
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$148.15
Value
$199.82
PnL
+$51.67
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$117.86
Value
$147.98
PnL
+$30.12
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$122.8
Value
$127.13
PnL
+$29.85
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.85
Value
$55.9
PnL
+$11.05
Record
57%
4034-3050 (7084)
Invested
$72
Value
$23
PnL
-$49
Record
30%
378-880 (1258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.