Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: O/U 2.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$473.35

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 70.5¢

+49% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,650

Combined PnL+$478

Over3 traders

Total Value$14.53

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$4.65

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$412.3	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$1.1K	$902.46	-$214.8	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$932.9	$640.34	-$292.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$184.36	$262.12	+$77.76
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 61.2¢	$299.29	$339.85	+$40.55	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$161.29	$154.71	-$6.57	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$85.1	$103.99	+$18.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$76.19	$50.73	-$25.46
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$21.96	$34.78	+$12.82	52% 463-433 (896)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 44¢	$10.01	$15.47	+$5.46	30% 378-880 (1258)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 42.4¢	$10.18	$13.02	+$2.84	38% 351-584 (935)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.88	$9.36	+$2.48	31% 390-871 (1261)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$8.13	$6.74	-$1.39	31% 384-854 (1238)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 64¢	$5.24	$5.56	+$0.33	45% 267-322 (589)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$4.48	$4.34	-$0.14	38% 137-223 (360)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$6.58	$3.45	-$3.13	41% 260-381 (641)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$3.43	+$1.23	30% 380-875 (1255)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,204.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$412.3

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,117.26

Value

$902.46

PnL

-$214.8

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Both legs:

Over$932.946.6¢-$292.56

Under$184.3647.8¢+$77.76

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$299.29

Value

$339.85

PnL

+$40.55

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$161.29

Value

$154.71

PnL

-$6.57

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

Both legs:

Under$85.155.7¢+$18.89

Over$76.1948.1¢-$25.46

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$21.96

Value

$34.78

PnL

+$12.82

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$10.01

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$5.46

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$10.18

Value

$13.02

PnL

+$2.84

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$6.88

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$2.48

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.13

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$1.39

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.33

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.34

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.58

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$3.13

Record

41%

260-381 (641)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$1.23

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.