Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 21¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$23.45
18.9¢ → 21¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$15.75 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 80¢ | $849.6 | $844.29 | -$5.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 19.1¢ | $286.16 | $307.22 | +$21.06 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 20¢ | $256.9 | $263.84 | +$6.94 | 30% 375-876 (1251) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 18¢ | $217.67 | $229.29 | +$11.62 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $149.77 | $142.23 | +$7.46 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 80¢ | $80 | $79.5 | -$0.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 18.3¢ | $56.04 | $62.73 | +$7.96 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $86.27 | $91.06 | +$4.79 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $7.99 | $7.99 | +$0 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $4 | $4.1 | +$0.1 | 31% 386-869 (1255) |
Invested
$1,135.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$15.75
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Both legs:
Invested
$256.9
Value
$263.84
PnL
+$6.94
Record
30%
375-876 (1251)
Invested
$217.67
Value
$229.29
PnL
+$11.62
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$149.77
Value
$142.23
PnL
+$7.46
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.27
Value
$91.06
PnL
+$4.79
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
31%
386-869 (1255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.