Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 37¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$100.22
42.7¢ → 36.5¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$40.52 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$95.68 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.7¢ | $736 | $791.16 | +$55.16 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $300 | $371.43 | +$71.43 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $159.54 | $188.55 | +$29.01 | 30% 378-880 (1258) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $9.8 | $9.6 | -$0.2 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $3.84 | $4.08 | +$0.24 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $3.38 | $3.13 | -$0.26 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
Invested
$2,000.08
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$40.52
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Both legs:
Invested
$300
Value
$371.43
PnL
+$71.43
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Invested
$159.54
Value
$188.55
PnL
+$29.01
Record
30%
378-880 (1258)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$0.24
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
Invested
$3.38
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.26
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.