Spread: HB Køge (-2.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women (43%) · Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women at 80¢ · $864 held · ended Nov 11

HB Køge21¢Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women79¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

Consensus Traders

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women 43%

Total Value

$864.34

Combined PnL

$2.21

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 79.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOud-Heverlee Leuven Women at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HB Køge21%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women3 traders

Total Value$729.42

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$0.8

HB Køge4 traders

Total Value$134.92

Total Shares732

Combined PnL+$3.02

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women — 43%HB Køge — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHB Køge 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 82¢	$481.16	$481.88	+$0.72	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
38 38791873984189	Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 82.4¢	$224.65	$223.43	-$1.22	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	HB Køgeavg 18¢	$96.23	$96.23	-$0	31% 386-869 (1255)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	HB Køgeavg 18¢	$24.77	$26.15	+$1.38	30% 375-876 (1251)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 83¢	$24.41	$24.12	-$0.29	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	HB Køgeavg 18¢	$9.85	$11.49	+$1.64	30% 378-870 (1248)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	HB Køgeavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.05	+$0	31% 381-851 (1232)

Flaznorp

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

Invested

$481.16

Value

$481.88

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

38791873984189

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

Invested

$224.65

Value

$223.43

PnL

-$1.22

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

VenusianCTR<$100

HB Køge

Invested

$96.23

Value

$96.23

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

386-869 (1255)

LimousinCTR<$100

HB Køge

Invested

$24.77

Value

$26.15

PnL

+$1.38

Record

30%

375-876 (1251)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

Invested

$24.41

Value

$24.12

PnL

-$0.29

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

HB Køge

Invested

$9.85

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$1.64

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

HB Køge

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralOud-Heverlee Leuven Women at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHB Køge 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.