Spread: HB Køge (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women (67%) · Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women at 62¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women
6
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women 67%
$394.68
$11.12
63.9¢ → 62¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOud-Heverlee Leuven Women at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 63.7¢ | $175.01 | $146.05 | +$0.04 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | HB Køgeavg 36¢ | $129.6 | $136.8 | +$7.2 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 64¢ | $96 | $99.75 | +$3.75 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 65¢ | $6.08 | $6.17 | +$0.09 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven Womenavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.33 | +$0.08 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | HB Køgeavg 34¢ | $2.62 | $2.59 | -$0.04 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$175.01
Value
$146.05
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$129.6
Value
$136.8
PnL
+$7.2
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$96
Value
$99.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$6.17
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$0.08
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.04
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.