Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women win on 2026-11-11?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 82¢ · $332 held · ends Nov 11

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$332.01

Combined PnL

$6.83

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$278.09

Total Shares299

Combined PnL+$5.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$53.92

Total Shares297

Combined PnL+$1.55

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.5¢	$194.2	$199.05	+$4.84	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 81¢	$70.46	$70.89	+$0.43	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$33	$34.94	+$1.94	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$10.41	$10.18	-$0.23	19% 146-610 (756)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$8.15	$8.15	+$0	37% 340-570 (910)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$6.15	$5.99	-$0.16	30% 373-863 (1236)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.81	$2.81	+$0	31% 376-842 (1218)

Flaznorp

Invested

$194.2

Value

$199.05

PnL

+$4.84

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$70.46

Value

$70.89

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33

Value

$34.94

PnL

+$1.94

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

19%

146-610 (756)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0.16

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.