Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will HB Køge win on 2026-11-11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 40¢ · $868 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$867.97
$18.14
38.5¢ → 39.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 39.4¢ | $497.7 | $514.37 | +$16.67 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39.4¢ | $358.5 | $373.51 | +$15.01 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $139.2 | $140.86 | +$1.66 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 38.7¢ | $171.49 | $176.3 | +$10.43 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $66.99 | $71.34 | +$4.35 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $48.45 | $51.81 | +$3.36 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.4¢ | $44.49 | $45.08 | +$0.59 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.4¢ | $24.52 | $24.77 | +$0.25 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.3¢ | $19.97 | $20.3 | +$0.34 | |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $9.07 | $9.07 | +$0 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
Invested
$497.7
Value
$514.37
PnL
+$16.67
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$171.49
Value
$176.3
PnL
+$10.43
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$66.99
Value
$71.34
PnL
+$4.35
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$48.45
Value
$51.81
PnL
+$3.36
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$44.49
Value
$45.08
PnL
+$0.59
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.07
Value
$9.07
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.