HB Køge leading at halftime?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$275.47

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL+$464.52

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.34

Total Shares688

Combined PnL-$189.05

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65¢	$452.22	$694.96	+$242.74	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 57.8¢	$332.51	$470.7	+$138.19	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54¢	$84.38	$139.18	+$54.8	52% 463-433 (896)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 53¢	$42.39	$71.19	+$28.8	45% 267-322 (589)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$31.5	$10.02	-$21.48	30% 378-880 (1258)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$166.39	$0.31	-$166.08	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.5	$0	-$1.5	31% 384-854 (1238)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$452.22

Value

$694.96

PnL

+$242.74

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Flaznorp

Invested

$332.51

Value

$470.7

PnL

+$138.19

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$84.38

Value

$139.18

PnL

+$54.8

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$42.39

Value

$71.19

PnL

+$28.8

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.5

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$21.48

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$166.39

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$166.08

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.