Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
$30.58
60.7¢ → 63¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 60.9¢ | $613.24 | $634.57 | +$21.34 | 60% 646-430 (1076) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $606.09 | $627.52 | +$21.43 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $407.74 | $431.04 | +$23.3 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 63.6¢ | $198.35 | $196.48 | -$1.87 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 60.3¢ | $120.5 | $126 | +$5.5 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $120.38 | $120.85 | +$0.48 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $92.6 | $95.25 | +$2.65 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 64¢ | $27.78 | $25.61 | -$2.17 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $101.21 | $101.21 | +$0 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $81.46 | $85.21 | +$3.74 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $20.93 | $20.93 | +$0 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
Invested
$613.24
Value
$634.57
PnL
+$21.34
Record
60%
646-430 (1076)
Invested
$606.09
Value
$627.52
PnL
+$21.43
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$120.5
Value
$126
PnL
+$5.5
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$120.38
Value
$120.85
PnL
+$0.48
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.21
Value
$101.21
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$81.46
Value
$85.21
PnL
+$3.74
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$20.93
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.