Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 28¢ · $667 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$667.15
$75.25
22.3¢ → 28.5¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $340.75 | $416.02 | +$75.27 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $198.32 | $189.95 | -$8.37 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $26.25 | $33.75 | +$7.5 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $25.25 | $25.72 | +$0.47 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.33 | $1.71 | +$0.38 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
Invested
$340.75
Value
$416.02
PnL
+$75.27
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$198.32
Value
$189.95
PnL
-$8.37
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$33.75
PnL
+$7.5
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$25.25
Value
$25.72
PnL
+$0.47
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0.38
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.