Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 5.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 77¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$81.77
$0.15
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 77.2¢ | $42.86 | $42.75 | -$0.12 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $12.96 | $12.96 | +$0 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 77.1¢ | $12.4 | $12.39 | -$0.01 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $5.84 | $6.11 | +$0.27 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $5.02 | $5.02 | +$0 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 22.9¢ | $2.54 | $2.55 | +$0.01 | 31% 386-869 (1255) |
Invested
$42.86
Value
$42.75
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.39
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$0.27
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$2.54
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.01
Record
31%
386-869 (1255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.