Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$84.79
-$0.35
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 61.9¢ | $48.04 | $47.66 | -$0.38 | 51% 1751-1707 (3458) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 61.8¢ | $18.85 | $18.4 | -$0.45 | 36% 315-551 (866) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 60.8¢ | $41.22 | $11.04 | +$0.43 | 52% 410-384 (794) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $5.64 | $5.69 | +$0.05 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 29% 349-838 (1187) |
Invested
$48.04
Value
$47.66
PnL
-$0.38
Record
51%
1751-1707 (3458)
Invested
$18.85
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
315-551 (866)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$41.22
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
410-384 (794)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$2
Value
$2
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
349-838 (1187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.