Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 41¢ · $355 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$354.73
-$4.46
43.7¢ → 41¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 57.1¢ | $185.49 | $189.16 | +$3.67 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57.1¢ | $143.49 | $148.16 | +$4.67 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42¢ | $42 | $41 | -$1 | |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.8¢ | $98.43 | $92.24 | -$6.19 | 22% 28-100 (128) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 57.2¢ | $114.5 | $59 | +$2.5 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $9.72 | $9.49 | -$0.23 | 35% 266-490 (756) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $5.38 | $4.84 | -$0.54 | 40% 241-361 (602) |
Invested
$185.49
Value
$189.16
PnL
+$3.67
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.43
Value
$92.24
PnL
-$6.19
Record
22%
28-100 (128)
VeryLucky888Invested
$114.5
Value
$59
PnL
+$2.5
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$0.23
Record
35%
266-490 (756)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.54
Record
40%
241-361 (602)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.