Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 2.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 79¢ · $396 held · ends Nov 11

Over79¢Under21¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$395.73

Combined PnL

$9.34

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$239.43

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$1.52

Under4 traders

Total Value$156.3

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$10.86

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 79¢	$240.95	$239.43	-$1.52	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$76.8	$86.76	+$9.96	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$63.29	$63.29	-$0	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$4.2	$5	+$0.8	30% 373-863 (1236)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.25	+$0.1	37% 340-570 (910)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$240.95

Value

$239.43

PnL

-$1.52

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.8

Value

$86.76

PnL

+$9.96

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.29

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

PnL

+$0.8

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.