Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (95%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 5.5¢ · $528 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$527.88
-$45.22
6¢ → 5.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 6¢ | $460.32 | $419.02 | -$41.29 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.3¢ | $38.08 | $33.39 | -$4.68 | 30% 379-881 (1260) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 5.4¢ | $22.11 | $24.73 | +$2.62 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $23.9 | $21.91 | -$1.99 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $21.19 | $20.84 | -$0.34 | 38% 352-584 (936) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $7.52 | $7.99 | +$0.47 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
Invested
$460.32
Value
$419.02
PnL
-$41.29
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$38.08
Value
$33.39
PnL
-$4.68
Record
30%
379-881 (1260)
Invested
$22.11
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$2.62
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$23.9
Value
$21.91
PnL
-$1.99
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$21.19
Value
$20.84
PnL
-$0.34
Record
38%
352-584 (936)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0.47
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.