Spread: OL Lyonnes (-3.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus FC (33%) · Juventus FC at 66¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Juventus FC
3
Juventus FC 33%
2 arb excluded
$506.33
$0.84
Research grade
NeutralJuventus FC at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Juventus FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 34.8¢ | $226.81 | $227.49 | +$0.68 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
| └ OL Lyonnes leg | OL Lyonnesavg 34.8¢ | $136.55 | $137.23 | +$0.68 | |
| └ Juventus FC leg | Juventus FCavg 65¢ | $90.26 | $90.26 | -$0 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Juventus FCavg 65¢ | $179 | $179 | -$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 35¢ | $70.48 | $70.48 | +$0 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
| └ OL Lyonnes leg | OL Lyonnesavg 35¢ | $50.35 | $50.35 | +$0 | |
| └ Juventus FC leg | Juventus FCavg 65¢ | $20.13 | $20.13 | -$0 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 34¢ | $26.82 | $27.61 | +$0.79 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.75 | +$0.05 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
Invested
$226.81
Value
$227.49
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
Both legs:
Invested
$179
Value
$179
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$70.48
Value
$70.48
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.82
Value
$27.61
PnL
+$0.79
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.