Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Juventus FC, while the market favors OL Lyonnes (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: OL Lyonnes (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus FC (67%) · Juventus FC at 46¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Juventus FC
6
Juventus FC 67%
$82.15
$1
Research grade
NeutralJuventus FC at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors OL Lyonnes 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Juventus FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 52.1¢ | $45.49 | $46.52 | +$1.03 | 51% 1751-1707 (3458) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 46¢ | $18.69 | $18.69 | +$0 | 29% 351-840 (1191) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 46¢ | $9.4 | $9.4 | +$0 | 30% 350-836 (1186) |
SE sentrio<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.67 | +$0.02 | 36% 315-551 (866) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 46¢ | $2.56 | $2.56 | -$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.3 | -$0.05 | 29% 349-838 (1187) |
Invested
$45.49
Value
$46.52
PnL
+$1.03
Record
51%
1751-1707 (3458)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$18.69
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
351-840 (1191)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
350-836 (1186)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.67
PnL
+$0.02
Record
36%
315-551 (866)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$2.56
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
29%
349-838 (1187)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.